What could an endgame for coronavirus look like? What does it mean for it to be over? This is important to consider since most of the frustration and helplessness comes from not seeing the ways this could end. Facing the different possibilities might help us cope with the situation better, and possibly make more reasoned choices. So with that, let’s get started.
A likely scenario
Based on current knowledge, in my personal opinion, this is the most likely scenario, subject to some caveats (listed below).
The virus will continue to spread. Most people will be unaffected or mildly affected. Some people will be severely affected and a few of them will, sadly, die. The people most affected severely will be older people and people with chronic conditions, but this is no different from the flu.
Businesses and organizations that operate on people gathering in one place (retail stores, schools, gyms, event planners, movie halls, malls, restaurants, etc.) would take a hit. Transport services (buses, trains, flights, cabs, etc.) and travel related services (travel booking, hotels, car rentals, etc.) would also be hit. All businesses and schools will need to catch up on lost time. On the other hand, e-alternatives will see an increase in business (e-deliveries, online meetings, online retailers). This impact will be higher in severely hit areas and lower in relatively unaffected areas.
But we will, as always, adapt, cope and survive.
Large scale stress events (like wars or epidemics) tend to nudge systems into taking on innovative and alternative technologies that they have been resisting all along. For example, some schools and colleges are implementing completely remote education, perhaps for the first time, as alternatives to traditional classroom settings. If this works well, there is a chance that more schools might adopt online learning even after the coronavirus has passed.
I called this the most likely scenario. However, there are a few caveats.
Caveats
Viruses tend to balance virulence with transmission. On the one hand, the virus wants to replicate maximally within the host it infects, gobbling up all it can get. But if this goes too far, the host may die. Then, the virus dies too. On the other hand, if the virus merely infects a host and focuses on transmission, it will die out within each host too soon. Nature tends to balance this by favoring virus mutations that damage the host enough to thrive within the host and enable transmission, but not kill the host.
What this means for us is that the virus is likely to work in our favor, minimizing the likelihood of death. This does not mean that no one will die — each strain of the virus is defined by its genetic makeup — it will infect indiscriminately, but will tend to create more damage in hosts with weaker immunity. The weak among the infected will have more severe effects (like respiratory failure or death), while the stronger will survive it better.
Some viruses tend to be less active at higher temperatures. This is why we see that the flu is generally less active in the warmer months. As of now, we do not know if the coronavirus of 2019 will follow this behavior (Will warm weather stop the outbreak of COVID-19?). If it does slow down in warmer weather, we will buy some time to bring it under control (before the next fall/winter).
Speaking of bringing it under control — this may happen with some combination of treatments, vaccines, cures, many of which are under active development. It is estimated that a treatment is likely to come earlier than a vaccine. Even as we wait for these medical results, most people will bring it under control by being infected and developing immunity.
Conclusion
This unfolding epidemic is a race between the virus attacking humans, and humans trying to tame and control the virus. Every infection, more severe mutation of the virus, severe illness, death and transmission is a win for the virus. Minimizing spread, developing resistance, finding medical solutions are victories for the human camp. Considering that we are still here in spite of past epidemics and pandemics, I would bet on our ability to survive this one. The connectivity through the internet enables our researchers to collaborate globally in real time to find a solution — this further increases our odds of beating the virus. And as we saw, the doomsday scenarios (like the virus mutating into a beast that brings down the entire civilization) have an extremely low likelihood. After all, the virus, if it ‘chose’ to wipe us out, would be wiping itself out. That would be rather dumb, wouldn’t it?
